By John Lindstrom
Publisher
Posted: August 29, 2019 3:22 PM

Okay, the next 33 days is intended for the state to develop a 2019-20 budget and a road plan. How much of either we get is partly the issue here. Because the next month will also be critical in setting agendas for two future events: the elections of 2020 and 2022.

In setting those agendas, however, the politics of the next month will be critical. Critical to see who can put the greatest pressure on who to win the month. For all the ya-ya, blah-blah come October 1 over the people "won" whatever they "won" out of whatever comes of the discussions between Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake) and House Speaker Lee Chatfield (R-Levering), the real winner will be which of politicians gets closest to her/his ultimate goal.

Which then triggers the political agenda setting and strategizing for first the critical 2020 election and then the equally critical 2022 election.

The absolute best hope of getting a budget including a plan to invest $2 billion plus into road and infrastructure comes this month. If the two parts are broken, the chance of a serious plan to fix roads being passed anytime during the remainder of the 100th Legislature diminishes dramatically.

Oh, some road proposal would get passed, certainly. But if the experts say fixing the state's roads needs an ongoing investment of $2 billion or more you can bet a pothole whatever road plan is passed beyond September will fall short of that funding, and therefore fall short of Ms. Whitmer's goal. Anything passed after the passage of the rest of the budget will not include the major revenue source needed – from wherever it comes – to meet the full ongoing construction need.

Well, 2020, election year, passing tax increases is very unpopular during election years. The best hope of passing a significant revenue increase is in the next 33 days with the additional funds going to work in 2020.

So, Ms. Whitmer will have to rally her troops to put as much pressure as they can on the legislative leaders to move on revenue. A revenue decision will not come just from three folks talking in a closed room. It will come with unrelenting pressure not just on Mr. Shirkey and Mr. Chatfield but on their various caucus members who will end up putting the real pressure on the leaders.

And opponents of revenue increases will have to push just as hard to convince lawmakers to hold firm. They have a somewhat tougher task because the push to reroute spending for roads means various budget areas, and their constituents, will be left short of funds and fuming, and they will have to adequately explain how no new revenue will keep up sufficient funds for ongoing road maintenance and construction.

Again, we're looking not just at the next month, but the next 27 months. However this September is resolved, big campaign slogans and attacks will be the result. Remember, the big goal in Michigan government next year is control of the House. If Republicans win, they can help stall the Whitmer agenda and force her into a 2022 race with voters asking, "Did you fix the roads?"

If Democrats take the House next year, then two-thirds Democratic control of state government will put a ton of pressure on Senate Republicans leading up to 2022.

The 2020 House campaign could easily shape up to this Democrat raised/tried to raise your taxes; this Republican blocked fixing your roads.

Some months back, this reporter said Mr. Shirkey would be the key player in deciding a final resolution. With Ms. Whitmer and Mr. Chatfield largely fixed in their positions, that hasn't changed much. Mr. Shirkey's suggestion to split the budget from the road package is more a high-stakes ante to call everyone's bluff than it is a major policy position.

After all, it's not just Ms. Whitmer who wants a road plan. Mr. Shirkey and Mr. Chatfield's constituents want a road plan too. Everyone wants a road plan. Okay they disagree on how to pay for it, but they want a plan, they want something to actually start fixing the roads. And, frankly, they are tired of the ongoing argument so they want to see a plan that everyone agrees will actually take care of the issue.

Mr. Shirkey then remains the guy with the hand everyone plays against. Now comes the political action that will drive how the players call his hand, and helps set up the election games for the next several years.